Russia, Medvedev said, was already strengthening the position of its currency. As demand for the ruble grows, it is set to become one of the world’s reserve currencies, he believes. Analysts are less optimistic, saying the ruble could become a reserve currency but this would not happen soon.

Until recently Russians preferred the dollar to the ruble for payments and savings purposes. But it is now becoming more profitable to keep money in rubles than in dollars or euros. Russian authorities strongly recommend keeping money in rubles. And this is not surprising. Whether it is good or bad, the ruble continues to strengthen. The appreciation of the national currency used to be seen as “harmful for the economy,” but after the last government meeting officials also point to the strong points of the ruble’s strengthening.

Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said the global economy needed a more stable financial system based not on the single reserve currency, the dollar, but on several currencies. “The current economic situation in the United States, the issuer of the single reserve currency, causes concern,” he noted. Today, he said, new leaders were coming to the foreground, with their stable currencies, which would lead to changes in the financial system. “There are all prerequisites for the creation of this system,” Medvedev stressed, adding that the ruble could well become one of the world’s reserve currencies. Among measures taken by Russia in this respect, Medvedev mentioned decisions to lift restrictions on ruble operations, plans to start oil trading through commodity exchanges with payment in rubles, and tax and customs payments in rubles.

On the whole, experts agree with Medvedev. “Indeed, the ruble may become a reserve currency, but this does not mean that it will play an important role in international reserves,” said Oleg Solntsev, an analyst at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting. He sees “two windows of opportunity” for the Russian currency. If Russia takes advantage of them, the ruble could well become one of the world’s reserve currencies.

As the dollar loses its central role, the role of regional currencies rises, Solntsev says. As an example he referred to the euro, which is becoming a global currency. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) also plans to introduce a common currency, and Persian Gulf countries are going to do the same.

The dollar could lose its position on the energy market, too, as the Asian energy market is emerging, where the US will not play a leading role. Iran threatens to sell its oil for euros. Besides, China and India are turning into large industrial powers, becoming the biggest importers of oil.

“In other words, there is an opportunity for building an oil market without the United States. It will be based on traffic inside the Asian region,” Solntsev said. Another window of opportunity for the ruble is the need for integration on the post-Soviet arena. The financial systems of developed countries are showing strong interest in transition economies. “It is difficult to integrate these assets into the existing system of international institutes and rules without an intermediary who would undertake obligations on supporting certain rules, for example respecting the rights of investors,” Solntsev said.

“Speaking of the ruble as a reserve currency, we can only rely on Russia’s geopolitical and geo-economic role,” he concluded. The country must be capable of providing the global market not only with financial instruments but also with capital values, the analyst thinks.

Dmitry Lepetikov, Director of the Center for Development, also believes that the ruble has a good chance of becoming the world’s reserve currency. This depends on Russia’s economic performance and its role in global production. “The question is when this happens,” he said, adding that the goal was unlikely to be achieved before 2030-2050.

Natalia Orlova, at Alfa Bank, agrees. “This will not happen soon. If we consider the ruble as a reserve currency if Kazakhstan or some other country of the CIS includes it in its reserves, this could happen over the next five years,” she said. If we imagine that Russia begins expanding its public debt market, some of these countries could begin investing in Russia. “But this implies significant changes in the economy. At this point, it is unlikely that foreign central banks shall buy Russian bonds: we do not have assets that could be offered to such banks. So, the ruble will hardly be able to compete with the dollar, the euro or the yen over the next 20 years,” she told RBC Daily.

Solntsev disagrees: “The role of currencies is being reviewed. The windows of opportunity should close in 7-8 years.” If by that time Russia fails to position itself as one of the key players on the energy market, having the essential qualities of the financial system, necessary for at least part of global energy payments, if it fails to reposition itself on the post-Soviet space, there will be no point in talking about all this as new zones of influence will be formed and the niche will be occupied by other players,” Solntsev said.

Analytical department of RIA RosBusinessConsulting